Sun & Space WeatherPEER REVIEWED

Can We Predict Solar Storms by Watching How the Sun Goes to Sleep?

By Space.Fan Editorial DeskSeptember 20, 2026 at 5:20 PM UTC

Scientists have found a new way to guess how intense the next solar cycle will be by watching for a sudden drop in sunspots.

Image · Phys.org

The Drop

Our Sun goes through a regular 11-year pattern of activity. During this time, it moves from a quiet period to a stormy one filled with sunspots and solar flares. Scientists have tracked this pattern for over 200 years, but it has always been hard to know exactly when the peak of the storm will happen or how strong it will be. This new study suggests we have been looking at the wrong clues to make our predictions. Researcher Sandra Chapman looked back at years of data from previous solar cycles to see if there were hidden signs in how the Sun cools down. She discovered that the Sun does not just slowly fade out after its peak. Instead, it hits a sharp cutoff point where sunspot numbers drop very quickly. By measuring how many sunspots are left at this exact moment of the drop, scientists believe they can get a much better idea of how strong the next cycle will be. This method offers a new way to look at the patterns of the Sun, moving away from simple guesses toward more focused observations of these sudden changes.

Why It Matters

Understanding the intensity of upcoming solar cycles is vital for protecting our modern technology. Strong solar activity can disrupt satellites in orbit, scramble GPS signals, and even cause problems for electrical power grids on the ground. If we can accurately predict when the Sun will be at its strongest, we can better prepare our satellites and power systems to survive the worst of the weather.

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The Catch

While this new model is promising, it is still a theory that needs to be tested against future events. The Sun is complex, and even though there is a connection between the cutoff point and future strength, it is not a perfect rule. We will not truly know if this prediction method works for a few more years until the Sun reaches its next expected drop-off point in 2028 and the subsequent peak in the 2030s.

Put That in Perspective

The Sun is currently finishing up its 25th cycle, which began in 2019. Based on this new research, the next cycle, known as Cycle 26, is expected to be a bit weaker than the one we are in now. Scientists will continue to watch the Sun closely over the coming years to see if the actual data matches this early prediction.

Source September 20, 2026

Sandra Chapman

The Astrophysical Journal·10.3847/1538-4357/ae6859